In the middle and late December, on the one hand, heavy pollution weather warning was restarted in Shandong, which affected the road transportation and downstream plant load. On the other hand, the main downstream polypropylene powder plant is under great pressure, and the price difference with granular material is small, so there is no obvious advantage. On the demand side, power rationing and environmental protection are both under pressure, leading to a contraction in terminal demand and a significant decline in operating rate. Due to the lack of good support in the market, propylene is vulnerable, and the focus of offer continues to decline. As of December 31, Shandong propylene market mainstream reference 7100-7150 yuan / ton, down 550 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.
Data source: Longzhong information
So can propylene stop falling and stabilize? Let's look at the supply and demand side.
1、 There is still room for profit of the three processes
Data source: Longzhong information
At present, the profit margin of PDH process is gradually narrowed, and other oil and methanol to propylene costs still have good profit support. At present, the profit of naphtha to propylene is maintained at 200-300 US dollars / ton; the profit of PDH is maintained at 100-500 yuan / ton; the profit of methanol to propylene is maintained at 300-400 yuan / ton.
2、 The overall supply of domestic market is sufficient
Shandong market: the 180 kt / a MTO plant in Luxi has not been restarted yet, and the specific restart time is yet to be determined. At present, the supply in the region is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of some production enterprises has been eased, but the inventory of individual enterprises is still high.
Northeast China: Jilin Cornell 170000 T / a MTO plant, Longyou 200000 t / a polypropylene plant and Jishen 100000 t / a PO plant continue to stop, and there is no plan to restart. At present, the circulation of goods in the region has increased slightly, the overall inventory of production enterprises is acceptable, and individual enterprises are under slight pressure.
North China: Haiwei Petrochemical's 500000 T / a PDH unit runs smoothly. The long-term supply of Tianjin Bohua and Tianjin Petrochemical remained at normal level. In addition, it is understood that Tianjin Bohua's 600000 T / a PDH unit is scheduled to be stored and repaired in January, and the specific time is yet to be determined.
East China: the 450 kt / a MTO plant in sipang is scheduled to restart in early January. At present, the supply of goods in the region is sufficient, some enterprises in Zhejiang are still under the pressure of shipment, and the whole Jiangsu area is fair.
3、 Main downstream profits rebound, demand is expected to increase
|
Product |
Price (yuan / ton) |
Trend |
Operating rate |
Theoretical profit (yuan / ton) |
|
PP Powder |
7900-7950 |
Upstream |
60.76% |
80-100 |
|
Octanol |
11700-11800 |
Stable |
98% |
4600-4700 |
|
N-butanol |
8900-9200 |
Down |
77% |
2900-3000 |
|
Acrylic acid |
7500-7700 |
Stable |
66% |
600-700 |
|
Propylene oxide |
18700-18800 |
Upstream |
82.34% |
9000-10000 |
Data source: Longzhong information
We still take the main downstream polypropylene as an example. With the recent lifting of power rationing and environmental protection policies in East China and Shandong, the downstream plastic weaving industry has recovered, and the overall starting load has increased slowly, thus driving the market trading. At present, the powder price shows a trend of small rise after falling, and the theoretical profit rises, which may drive the enthusiasm of raw material purchasing. Other downstream companies also maintain a good profit margin, so the overall demand is expected to increase.
On the whole, although some manufacturers are still under the pressure of shipping, there is a certain profit margin in the downstream, and the willingness to purchase raw materials may increase. Therefore, we believe that the propylene market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term.
Author: Qi Juan
